Military analysts predict that Russia will increase the tempo of its operations in a summer offensive to increase pressure on Ukraine, but note that Moscow could struggle to keep up the pace into 2026. Russia shows no intention of wrapping up the war any time soon.

But halting progress, ever-more deadly drone attacks and unmoving negotiating positions seem to have taken their toll. On Thursday, Trump used a striking analogy to concede the warfare was nowhere near over, and that he did not, at that moment, feel it was best to intervene.